Jeremy Heit's Blog
Saturday, August 16, 2003
 
Glavine pitched well again last night in a questec park (the Mets were home). Now, Tom, if you go out, pitch well (6 IP, 0 ER), smile once in a while, and talk about how you had some good stuff and the team did a nice job giving some offense instead of sucking and complaining and blaming your struggles on everything but yourself, a few people in New York might like you.

Also, I watched part of the Yankees game on YES. I am now convinced Michael Kay is the worst play by play man in any sport (I really haven't expressed how much I dislike Michael Kay on this blog yet...).

We are ten games into the Paul Konerko watch and his numbers are dropping since the White Sox's have lost three in a row (by the way, in the 5 losses, he's batting .188).

Now, if you look at the despriction for this blog it says ramblings about sports mostly focused on baseball. Basically, meaning, I'm a baseball blog first, but I will talk about other sports and during the offseason, while I'll still talk some baseball, I will be talking all other sports (and my favorite teams, the Jets (football), Rangers (hockey), Duke college basketball, and the Nets (basketball)) along with assorted other stuff when I get sick of talking sports.

Anyway, I bring that up because a NBA trade has been reported that will be going through on Monday. It's a 8 player deal involving the Mavs and the Warriors. A lot of the guys are in it to match salary cap numbers, but, to me, its Van Exel for Jamison, Fortson, and Jiri Welsch. I don't know about you, but I really think the Mavs have just given themselves a legitimate shot at winning the West. The one thing they didn't have last year, even though Dirk tried as hard as he could throughout the playoffs, was a low post presence and a rebounder. They got the low post scoring presence in Jamison (one of the most underrated players in the league) and the rebounder in Fortson (averages 8.7 per game for career and in 01-02 had 11.7 per game including just under 4 offensive rebounds per game). Jiri Welsch is an interesting throw in, as the Mavs have had some success with foreign players. This doesn't make them the favorite, but it does give them a real chance to win it all.

As for the Warriors, they have downgraded themselves because all they really got was a streaky shooter who is usually better off the bench. They were up and coming, but I'm not so sure anymore. I figured they might have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed this year, but I don't think so anymore.

Also, is it really football season? I got Madden 2004 two days ago and I'm just not ready for football. Maybe because I've been baseball blogging I have been paying way more attention to baseball than I usually do, but I'm into the races. Whenever baseball is on, I'm watching it. Also, how can Sportscenter have preseason football before highlights of the Phillies-Cardinals game. That makes no sense. Is football really that important in this country and is baseball that unimportant?

Friday, August 15, 2003
 
No Mets game because of the blackout across the Northeast section of the country (I live in Northern NJ, got a couple of like 10 second outages and then a 15-20 minute one around 8:30. Of course, the first one happened around 4:00. I walked into my house with Madden 2004 for XBox at 3:40. I got to the end of the coin toss and all of a sudden, everything shut off. I was not happy. But look at this way, I decided to write my blog for my readers this morning over playing Madden for the first time. And I won't be home all afternoon. I know, I'm crazy.) (That might have been the longest parentheses statement I've ever done... that was almost a paragraph...). Anyway, I did get to take in some of the Yankees-O's and some of the A's-Red Sox yesterday. Three major things...

1. Keith Foulke blew a save for someone not named Tim Hudson (of course, it had to be for Ted Lilly... not that wins for an individual matter, but it would have been nice for him.)
2. Hideki Matsui is quickly becoming my new favorite Yankee to hate. First, it was Jeter, but it gets old after a while, plus he has setbacks everyone knows about (no range!). Then, it was Roger Clemens, but everyone hates him. (and it wasn't just the Piazza thing, I hated him before that.) Now, its Hideki. I'm not sure why, I just don't like him. (And yes, there are a few Yankees I like... I love Mike Mussina, though I loved him more as an Oriole.)
3. The Orioles look like they could be real good real soon, but they need a bullpen.

Also, over at ESPN.com, Joe Morgan has two columns today. The first, which I won't dissect, is an article about how he would not be able to manage in the majors and how you can't compare the '03 Tigers to the '62 Mets. All I'll say about this one is, thank god for any team who was considering Joe Morgan (I'm really only joking, I have no clue what type of manager he would be, but I have a hunch, and its somewhere along the line of Tim Floyd, who by the way, is going to have a horrible season in New Orleans.) and that, while he has an OK point and true point, he has to understand that the Tigers don't spend money or run their team correctly top to bottom (I'm probably in the minority here, but Bonderman should not be in the majors. Speaking of that, the Mets were right to send Jeff Duncan back to Triple AAA. He needs to refine himself at the plate a little more, but his ability to walk and be patient in promising.)

The second, an article on Albert Pulojs, talks about Joe's opinion on the MVP race in the NL.

"Last year, Pujols finished second to Bonds in the MVP voting. Just about any another year, Pujols would have won the award. If the Giants win their division but the Cardinals don't win theirs, Barry likely will win again.

But if the Cardinals win the NL Central, I would lean toward Pujols. Barry has five MVPs already, and he probably doesn't have any room on his walls for another.

One's view of who deserves the MVP depends on one's MVP definition. There are differing opinions about how much weight to give to an individual's performance vs. his team's performance. I believe you must factor in how an MVP candidate's team fares."

Two of the best (meaning stupidest) arguments I will ever hear for giving it to Pujols are in that quote above...

1. Bonds have 5 MVP's, which is more than enough. That's just stupid.
2. If the Cardinals win the NL Central, Pujols should win the MVP.

Since we have established argument #1 is stupid, let's move to 2. Now, first off, I believe that team performance has a little weight in picking an MVP, but not a whole heck of a lot. But the problem with argument #2 is that the Giants have a better record than the Cardinals and are running away with their division! So, if you want to put a good amount of weight on team performance, the Giants are doing better than the Cardinals. Plus, the Cardinals probably have a better and more talented offensive team. This is, of course, to take nothing away from Pujols, who's great, but the NL MVP is Barry Bonds, as much as I hate to say it. Whether you weight team performace or not, its Barry Bonds.

A mixed bag of topics, as I didn't have a real topic today (But Joe Morgan can always provide them). Of course, I also used a buttload of parentheses today...

Thursday, August 14, 2003
 
Blogger just ate my post... a very good post... so, since I don't feel like typing it up again, I shall summarize (and unfortunately, without all links this time..)

The Mets won last night. Piazza hit well, Trachsel pitched well.

But I want to talk strategy, one used by both Art Howe and Felipe Alou last night. That is walking the 8th hitter to get to the pitcher with two outs and men on second. This makes no sense, as the other team wants to avoid having the pitcher lead off innings and most 8th hitters can't hit. Let's take a lok at both situations...

Top of the 2nd inning
-E Alfonzo popped out to shallow right.
-A Galarraga flied out to right center.
-B Santiago doubled to left.

Two outs, Santiago, who is not fast, on second and Neifi Perez up at the bat. Neifi Perez! He is hitting .262 with a .639 OPS and no homers in 263 AB's. He can't hit. So of course, Art Howe does what?

-N Perez intentionally walked.

To get to the pitcher Jerome Williams. I thought the point was to let Barry Bonds get up as few times as possible. Just think about this... in a game where Barry Bonds was not walked, Neifi Perez was intentionally walked. Makes ya sick, doesn't it? Of course...

-J Williams struck out swinging.

So Art Howe comes out looking good... How about Felipe's move?

Bottom of the 3rd inning
-J Reyes reached on bunt single to pitcher.
-J Reyes stole second.
-M Piazza homered to left, J Reyes scored.
-C Floyd lined out to shortstop.
-J Phillips grounded out to third.
-T Perez singled to right.
-T Perez stole second.
-T Perez stole third.
-T Wigginton doubled to deep left center, T Perez scored.

Ty Wigginton, a gamer and hard player, is on second, but he's not fast. .Joe McEwing up 8th, is having season similar to Neifi Perez with a .253 AVG and a .652 OPS. So, with a pitcher who is struggling and having people stealing and running all around him, what do you do? Walk Joe McEwing!

-J McEwing intentionally walked.

Before I break this down more, I would just like to say that, yes, Joe McEwing and Neifi Perez were intentionally walked in the same game. Hell, they were intentionally walked in the same season.

Some people might think this smart. Young struggling pitcher, let him face the pitcher to get the final out. Two problems here...
1. Your showing great confidence in your young pitcher by saying he can't get Joe McEwing out. He's probably already shaken up anyway...
2. The guy is struggling and needs to get off that mound and your going to force him to put another guy on and stay out there longer...

But, of course, it works...

-S Trachsel popped out to second.

But look at what happens next inning...

Bottom of the 4th inning
-R Cedeno walked.
-J Reyes grounded out to third, R Cedeno to second.
-M Piazza singled to left center, R Cedeno scored.

Jerome Williams is pulled for Chad Zerbe. Probably a different situation all around if the pitcher is the first out. I don't understand this strategy and never will (that's of course saying the 8th hitter isn't good), especially early in a game (then again, late in the game it would make no sense, since a pinch hitter would come up...).

Sorry I didn't give you the whole post, but I'm too frustrated after it being lost to type a long post again (I really ripped some people too...).

Wednesday, August 13, 2003
 
On Monday and Tuesday, I looked at the effect of the homerun on team batting average and SLG% (AVG on Monday and SLG on Tuesday). Today, I'm going to look at those stats for the teams in the playoff races. First, the American League...

AL Teams in Contention- Non-HR AVG (normal rank in parentheses)
1. Bos- .262 (1)
5. Min- .255 (6)
6. Sea- .253 (7)
9. KC- .249 (9)
19. NYY- .237 (12)
25. Oak- .230 (26)
27. ChW- .226 (23)

Boston has the best offense in the league. We knew that. Minnesota is actually a very good hitting team, but as everyone knows they need to get their starting pitching together. Seattle is fairly even, hits pretty well without homeruns. KC is doing a nice job, but I still doubt their offense a little (especially with everyone getting injured). The Yankees have a little reliance on the HR, but aren't the best average team in the world (but get on-base well). Oakland's offense is struggling and would probably like to be relying on the homerun right now. Chicago? The most one-sided offense in the league.

AL Teams- Non-HR SLG (normal rank in parentheses)
1. Bos- .352 (1)
4. Min- .328 (9)
8. Sea- .320 (12)
12. KC- .313 (14)
20. Oak- .298 (21)
22. NYY- .296 (7)
26. ChW- .288 (8)

Boston is fine. Minnesota could use a few more homeruns. Seattle could use a couple more, as could KC. Oakland could use some extra base hits and the Yanks and White Sox's need to hit homeruns. So by division...

AL EAST
Boston- Great offense, no problems, they need some starting pitching
Yankees- Too many homeruns, and Aaron Boone just adds to that problem, and some bullpen help.

AL CENTRAL
Royals- When you figure them out, tell me... For this study, they could use some more power, but they like to use speed and manufacture runs, but their lineup 1-9 is still the worst of the contenders.
White Sox- Home Run or Bust.
Twins- They could use some more homers and without doing any research, since they started playing better and geting back into it, it seems to me they are hitting a few more home runs than usual. Though the starting pitching needs to be effective.

AL WEST
Oakland- The best staff in the league, the worst offense among the contenders right now...
Seattle- Jeff Cirillo.... Rey Sanchez... otherwise a good solid offense (and they play in a massive pitcher's park, so their home runs numbers will be down).

NL Contender Non-HR AVG
2. St. Louis- .257 (3)
7. Atlanta- .252 (2)
10. Colorado- .247 (8)
11. Florida- .244 (13)
11. Arizona- .244 (15)
15. Montreal- .240 (17)
17. San Francisco- .238 (16)
20. Chicago Cubs- .236 (19)
21. Philadelphia- .235 (21)
23. Houston- .232 (20)
28. Los Angeles- .224 (29)

St. Louis can hit. Atlanta can too, bu they do rely a little on the HR. Colorado, long shot, hitters park. Florida is a all around good hitting team who could use a few more bombs. Arizona could use some more homeruns since they are a struggling offense. Montreal just might not have the talent, but not a bad hitting team. San Francisco... just fine where they are. Chicago, about even. Philly, struggling a little on offense. Houston relies a little on the homerun in a hitters park. LA... can't hit.

NL Teams- Non-HR SLG
3. StL- .331 (5)
6. Col- .322 (6)
7. Atl- .321 (2)
9. Ari- .319 (16)
11. Fla- .316 (11)
14. Phi- .305 (22)
16. SF- .303 (10)
17. ChC- .302 (19)
19. Mon- .301 (25)
21. Hou- .297 (13)
28. LA- .284 (30)

New revelations... hmmm... Philly could use something other than long balls. Florida is a good gap hitting team. I don't even know why Colorado and Montreal are even on this list. LA still can't hit. Houston does have a HR reliance problem... So by division...

NL EAST
Braves- Have to get starting pitching together, but offensively, a little reliance on HR. I call it the Javy Lopez Effect.
Philaelphia- Struggling offense, need more long bombs. I call it the Pat Burrell Effect.
Florida- Balanced, good gap hitting offense and good young starting pitching. I call it the Juan Pierre Effect.
Montreal- Just not enough offensive or pitching the talent. I call it the Bud Effect.

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis- Good all round offense. Beat up pitching though. I call it the Albert is an MVP if Barry Bonds is not playing Pulojs Effect.
Houston- Struggling offensively, with a reliance on the homerun in a hitter's park, plus injured starting pitching. I call it the Enron.. err.. The Juiced (Minute Maid.. haha) Park Effect.
Cubs- Great young starting pitching, terrible history, no lineup. I call it the Sammy "Where is Mark Grace?" Sosa Effect

NL WEST
San Francisco- The Barry Bonds Effect + Pac Bell Park's big gaps = solid middle of the road hitting team.
Arizona- Need homeruns. Need offense. I call it the Tony Womack Eff.... wait he's on Colorado now.
LA- Team that can't hit... what else other than calling it the Adrian Beltre Effect.
Colorado- The Coors Field Effect. What were you expecting, the Mark Bellhorn effect?

They're you go. In-depth break down of the races with non-HR stats (And yes, I just did an "effect" theme on the NL side... I'm really stretching this topic too far). I promise that I will be off this non-HR stats topic tomorrow (I really thought this was going to come off a little better than this, but then again you could like it, who knows...).

But, I did get one piece of feedback from Paul over at For Richer or Sporer who liked the non-HR stats articles and the Paul Konerko Watch (woo!). He is also running an interesting series on AOPS and has an article on it today that you should go check out. It is very good and he is open to all feedback on whether you think its good or has flaws. So go over there, read the article and all the numbers and help him out by sending your feedback (I did!).

Tuesday, August 12, 2003
 
The new look is officially done! Sidebar links and words are at normal size and the text is spaced how I want it. I'm also happy with the colors, so I'm done messing around with that. The permalinks work too, which means I can concentrate on writing and not on the look of my site (though it is fun to mess around sometimes). Anyway, until tomorrow's article, enjoy the games tonight... just thought I'd let you know I'm done...

 
Yesterday, in the first part of this series, I looked at how the homerun affects a team's batting average. It helped to prove who might need a power bat or two and who might be relying a little bit too much on the long ball. You can click here to read it if a) your too lazy to scroll down or b) you haven't read it yet (shame on you...). Today, I'm going to look at the effect homeruns have on SLG%. The first list will be team's SLG without homeruns (using the simple formula TB- 4(HR)/AB - HR) along with their team rank in regular slugging in parentheses. (All stats are through Sunday August 10th and do not include yesterday's games... too bad for the Royals.)

Non-HR SLG
1. Bos- .352 (1)
2. Tor- .336 (4)
3. StL- .331 (5)
4. Min- .328 (9)
5. TB- .323 (24)
6. Col- .322 (6)
7. Atl- .321 (2)
8. Sea- .320 (12)
9. Ari- .319 (16)
10. Bal- .317 (15)
11. Fla- .316 (11)
12. KC- .313 (14)
13. Ana- .306 (17)
14. Phi- .305 (22)
15. Pit- .304 (23)
16. SF- .303 (10)
17. Tex- .302 (3)
17. ChC- .302(19)
19. Mon- .301 (25)
20. Oak- .298 (21)
21. Hou- .297 (13)
22. NYY- .296 (7)
22. Cle- .296 (26)
22. SD- .296 (28)
25. NYM- .295 (27)
26. ChW- .288 (8)
27. Mil- .285 (20)
28. LA- .284 (30)
29. Cin- .277 (18)
30. Det- .266 (29)

First off, your how bad is the Dodgers offense stat of the day...

Boston's non-HR SLG is only 7 points lower than the Dodgers regular SLG% for the year.

Now that that's out of the way, some interesting things are going on here. The Twins end up in 4th, moving up 5 spots and showing that they are more a gap hitting team without a lot of long ball power. Good? Maybe. It's bad to fall on this list, meaning your relying too much on the homer, but I would think you would want to move up maybe one or two spots on this list. Moving up too much means you don't hit the home run often enough. Moving up one or two means you are consistent in the homerun hitting ability while still showing you can hit other XBH. The biggest surge up the list in TB, who ends up 5th, all the way up from 24th. Which once again, reinforcing a point from yesterday, which is this team needs a power bat or two to go with Huff. If they can get that, this offense could be pretty good sooner than later. The other team pointed out yesterday that needs a couple of power bats is SD, who makes a 6 spot surge. The Twins didn't make a surge yesterday (1 spot in BA), but they already had a good BA and were near the top in both of the lists yesterday. So, with teams moving up, the stats from yesterdaystill match.

How about teams moving down? Yesterday, I mentioned that I thought the White Sox's were the team that relied most on the homerun. Well, they made the biggest fall of 16 spots. They are a team that really relies on hitting the long ball (they are 19th in the league in OBP at .328). Other teams I mentioned for that are the Yankees, Texas, and the Braves a little. The Braves fall today a little more than yesterday, but are still at .321 and have a .351 team OBP. The Yankees who drop 15 spots to 22nd are a team that can get away with it because of their .354 team OBP. But still, this team has a tendency to have offensive droughts when they are not going deep. Texas, dropping 14 spots to 17, has a .336 OBP, which is 12th in the league. They rely a little too much on the homerun and couple probably use some patient gap hitters in their lineup.

Now, let's see if the second part corresponds with the first part. Here are the differences from regular SLG to non-HR SLG and perecntage in parentheses.

1. LA- .75 (21%)
2. TB- .80 (24%)
3. SD- .85 (22%)
4. NYM- .95 (24%)
5. Det- .97 (27%)
6. Min- .100 (23%)
6. Ari- .100 (24%)
6. Mon- .100 (25%)
9. Pit- .101 (25%)
9. Cle- .101 (25%)
11. Phi- .106 (26%)
12. Bal- .107 (25%)
13. Fla- .109 (26%)
14. KC- .112 (26%)
14. Ana- .112 (27%)
16. ChC- .113 (27%)
16. Oak- .113 (28%)
18. SF- .124 (29%)
19. Tor- .126 (27%)
19. Sea- .126 (25%)
21. Col -.127 (28%)
21. Mil- .127 (31%)
23. Stl- .128 (26%)
23. Hou- .128 (30%)
25. Cin- .139 (33%)
26. ChW- .146 (34%)
27. NYY- .150 (34%)
28. Bos- .152 (30%)
29. Atl- .157 (33%)
30. Tex- .161 (35%)

Basically, this backs it all up. The White Sox and the Yankees are gonna have to hit homeruns to make the playoffs. Texas needs to get more patient and get better gap hitters to become a less sporadic offense. It's a good sign for Boston that they are not at the bottom and that actually impresses me. Atlanta is wavering in that starting to become a problem area. Also, note that Cincinatti and Milwaukee are a couple of teams that rely way too much on the HR and they will have to do what I suggested for Texas to get their offensive problems healed. And it could be a tiny problem for Houston, but it doesn't seem that bad at the moment.

For the teams at the top of this list, it backs up everything too. The Twins need more homeruns out of their power bats. TB and SD need to add a couple of power bats and they could have good offenses. Basically, you want your rank to correspond with your regular rank in the catergory. At least, that's the way I look at it.

And since this is a blog leaning towards the Mets and I am a Mets fan, the outlook for the Mets looks like they need to add a couple of power bats to the lineup. But most of you already knew that anyway.

I would love to hear your feedback on what you think about this topic and the two articles I did (or anything I've done for that mattter). At some point, probably during the offseason, I'll run this year's numbers along with other years to see what type of team most often makes the playoffs and what type of team most often makes and wins the World Series. I want to see if there is any pattern, or if its all random (some of it will be because of pure luck during the year and in the playoffs).

Tommorow, I'll follow these two articles up with a look at these stats in conjunction with teams in the playoff races. (and hopefully have my sidebar fixed...)

Monday, August 11, 2003
 
OK, the blog is half done in its new look. I got the colors done, which I hope you like. If you don't, e-mail me, but I think its bold, but not too strong.

The text on the body is shrunk to a normal size and the permalinks work, so that's all set too.

Now, all I have to do is get the words and links on the sidebar to shrink, which I can't seem to get it to do... and get to figuring out SLG%, since I've wasted most of my time doing this...

 
Sorry about the look of the blog right now, but I'm attempting to figure out the sidebar. If I do that, I might mess around with the colors too.

But the good news... the permalinks work!

 
In a TV commercial, a couple of pitchers (Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine... I believe it was them... watching Mark McGwire... if I'm wrong on this e-mail me and tell me) said, "Chicks dig the long ball." Well, which teams are the chicks digg... you know what, screw the cheesy opening. Basically, today, I'm looking at how much all 30 major league teams have their batting AVG affected by the homeruns they hit. I'll make a few observations on the list today, but the real observations will come after tomorrow's entry, which will look at the effect homeruns have on all the teams' SLG%. So, the first list will be a team's AVG without the homeruns, using a simple formula H - HR/AB - HR. The second list will be the difference between the regular average and the non-HR average.

The first list will have the non-HR AVG and the team's rank in regular batting AVG next to it in parentheses. All stats are through Saturday August 9th and do not include yesterday's games (and yes, the tied teams might not be in correct order to the ten-thousandth place...). If you want to look at the regular AVG statistics for yourself, go here

1. Boston- .262 (1)
2. St. Louis- .257 (3)
2. Toronto- .257 (4)
2. Baltimore- .257 (5)
5. Minnesota- .255 (6)
6. Seattle- .253 (7)
7. Atlanta- .252 (2)
7. Tampa Bay- .252 (11)
9. Kansas City- .249 (9)
10. Colorado- .247 (8)
11. Florida- .244 (13)
11. Arizona- .244 (15)
13. Anaheim- .243 (14)
14. Texas- .241 (10)
15. Montreal- .240 (17)
16. San Diego- .239 (22)
17. San Francisco- .238 (16)
17. Pittsburgh- .238 (18)
19. New York Yankees- .237 (12)
20. Chicago Cubs- .236 (19)
21. Philadelphia- .235 (21)
22. New York Mets- .233 (25)
23. Houston- .232 (20)
24. Cleveland- .231 (27)
25. Oakland- .230 (26)
26. Milwaukee- .229 (24)
27. Chicago White Sox- .226 (23)
28. Los Angeles- .224 (29)
29. Cincinatti- .223 (28)
30. Detroit- .214 (30)

Basically, it can show you two things. One, teams that can go into offensive sulmps when they don't hit home runs. Teams like the Yankees, the Rangers, and the Braves to an extent (they are still hitting .252, which is good, which means the long ball helps their offense, but they still can hit otherwise...). It also shows which teams probably need one or two HR hitters in their lineups. Teams like Tampa Bay, San Diego, and the Mets a little. Teams who moved up this list might only be one or two impact power hitters away from having good offenses. The SLG% part tomorrow will also help explain that... at least I think it will.

But to make it easier to see, I have calculated the difference between the normal batting average and the non-HR batting average. The % difference will be next to it in parentheses.

1. TB- 16 (6%)
1. LA- 16 (7%)
3. SD- 17 (7%)
4. Mon- 20 (8%)
4. NYM- 20 (8%)
4. Det- 20 (8.5%)
7. Min- 21 (8%)
7. Ari- 21 (8%)
7. Pit- 21 (8%)
7. Cle- 21 (8%)
11. Bal- 22 (8%)
11. Sea- 22 (8%)
11. Fla- 22 (8%)
11. Phi- 22 (9%)
15. KC- 23 (8.5%)
15. Ana- 23 (9%)
15. ChC- 23 (9%)
15. Oak- 23 (9%)
19. Col- 25 (9%)
20. StL- 26 (9%)
20. Tor- 26 (9%)
20. SF- 26 (10%)
20. Hou- 26 (10%)
24. Mil- 27 (10.5%)
25. Cin- 29 (11.5%)
26. Tex- 30 (11%)
26. NYY- 30 (11%)
26. ChW- 30 (12%)
29. Bos- 31 (11%)
30. Atl- 32 (11%)

Well, by difference in points, Atlanta relies the most. But I actually think the team that relies on the long ball the most is the Chicago White Sox. They have the biggest percent difference at 12% They bat .226 without their HR, .256 with. That might be a major key down the stretch. If this team doesn't hit homeruns, they probably won't have enough offense to make the playoffs. The Yankees are another team that could go into an offensive dry spell if they don't hit the long ball. The team that relies the least is TB at 6%. They are hitting .268 with homeruns and .252 without. If they could find a couple of decent power hitters to go along with Aubrey Huff, this team might not be that far away on the offensive side.

Tomorrow, I'll look at the SLG% effect on teams and see how close the results are to today's.

 
Konerko stats updated... he hits a HR, they win... Boy, is he making me look smart...

Also, if you are wondering, tomorrow's article was inspired by today's. Today, I figured out averages without HR's using a simple formula, H- HR/AB - HR. Well, then I became interested in which teams rely most on the long ball for their batting averages. So, I ran the numbers for all 30 teams and I'll post it tomorrow (I still have to put some of it in order... I will have a list of the team AVG minus the HR's and then a list of the difference between regular AVG and average without HR's.). I'm also going to follow that up on Tuesday with which teams rely most on homeruns in their SLG%. I find it pretty interesting, even if it doesn't mean all that much, and its the real reason I love having a blog. You can find stuff that maybe isn't totally going to prove something, but its interesting, and it gives you a place to share the information and your ideas. Anyway, you can check that out in the morning...


Sunday, August 10, 2003
 
While looking at Roster Analysis on ESPN.com, I came across the fact that two teams do not not have a switch hitter on their roster. I found this to be pretty strange. Well, the two teams are Milwaukee and St. Louis. I figured this would just be my tidbit of the day, until, I decided to take a closer look into the two teams and their offenses... and was shocked to find out this...

Runs Scored
5. St. Louis- 639
25. Milwaukee- 498

I was really shocked that Milwaukee was that low. They don't have great players, but it seemed to me they scored a decent amount of runs, especially in that park. So I looked to see what the difference was that made them seperated by that much....

Home Runs
St. Louis- 141
Milwaukee- 137

Walks
St. Louis- 399
Milwaukee- 396

So far they are pretty close offensively in the numbers above...

Team BA
St. Louis- .283
Milwaukee- .256

Strikeouts
St. Louis- 650
Milwaukee- 875

Doubles
St. Louis- 249
Milwaukee- 178

Basically, Milwaukee either hits a HR, walks, or gets out (a lot of the time by a K). They do not have a balanced offense, which seems to be the problem. If you were to take out home runs from the numbers of hits each team has and take out those at bats where home runs were hit (Maybe a formula would make more sense... H - HR/AB - HR), St Louis's AVG would still be .257, where Milwaukee's is now. Milwaukee... they would be at .229.


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