Jeremy Heit's Blog
Saturday, December 06, 2003
 
Cameron era looks to be finished (Thanks to Steve for the link, because well, I got it from one of his posts)

Not exactly what you might be thinking...

"Center fielder Mike Cameron is holding two offers. One from the Mariners is for one season and more than $4 million, the other is from Oakland - for four years and $24 million."

And basically, it looks like he's going to Oakland.

From the Mets perspective, I like this. High on his defense, high on his ability to hit out of Safeco, but not high on his ability to hit in Shea, where flyballs go to die. And if you didn't know, he's a flyball hitter. And strikeouts way too much for my taste (Plus the draft pick thing).

The other interesting thing is from Oakland's perspective... Here are some things we know...

1. They ain't afraid to strikeout.
2. They want good defense.

And a third we can assume...

3. They know about Cameron's home/road splits.

Yet, Oakland's ballpark is big and spacious, and Cameron is a flyball hitter (.87 G/F career). He'll hit better there, and be an upgrade over Chris Singleton offensively and probably defensively. I think its a good move for Oakland, but he still might struggle hitting at home a little.

 
Kaz, Mets may have deal today

Just shoot me. Please. Over 7 million dollars a year now. The Dodgers are dropping out. This can't be happening, can it? But then again, I will take the positives with the negatives...

1. Apparently, the kid has speed and can hit (you know, unlike Shinjo)
2. He can play good D (though I'd much rather it be at 2B... actually, I'd rather it be at short... on a different team).
3. He will bring in money merchandise/butts in seat.

They'll make back money on the signing because of all the merchandise and hoopla Matsui will bring. But, I still don't want him. Not close to 8 mil a year for a guy who projects to hover around 10th in the league at short. Maybe, I'm wrong, but I will always be steadfastly against this (but, then again, its better than 6 million on Castillo).

Friday, December 05, 2003
 
Lots of linkage, a few thoughts from me...

Aaron Gleeman, as he always does, puts a great article together on the Vazquez-Johnson trade. Larry Mahnken, torn by the trade because of the lost of OBP Jesus Jr., provides his input, and despite Nick Johnson being his "precious" (I love the Hobbit theme), he realizes the trade is good for the Yankees. Jay Jaffe, another Yankees fan, weighs in too. You can read my thoughts on where the teams might go here.

The Kaz Matsui rumors are getting interesting. Especially with Mets bloggers. Bryan Hoch of Always Amazin' and Damien have thrown their hats in the ring for signing Matsui, whether he plays 2B or SS. Eric of SaberMets and Steve (just scroll down, he writes about it a lot) of Eddie Kranepool Society are not against signing Matsui, but do not want Reyes moved from shortstop. Going back to an earlier post from October Avkash is against this move, seeing him put up similar numbers to what Victor Diaz could.

Me? I agree with the range of projections by Bryan Smith and Aaron Gleeman. And well, giving a guy 7 million dollars a year for 3 years of a .258 GPA just doesn't seem worth it to me. So, put me in the against the move camp.

Speaking of Bryan, he has an originaztional meeting with Christian Ruzich of the Cub Reporter. It's interesting and terrific, as are all the meetings.

Bill Simmons has a column today on the Red Sox. It's funny, as is all his stuff, but also does a good job describing how Red Sox's feel at the moment. Dare I say... optimistic?

And finally, there is another hopeless Mets fan joining in on Mets blogging. The blog's name is Flushing Load and he has some very interesting posts, including a couple on the Matsui situation and how we bloggers are thinking. It's interesting, when talking about second base, that it seems Mets bloggers came to a unified decision on Luis Castillo (not worth the money) and Marco Scutaro (great stopgap for this year and maybe next), but can't seem to agree on Kaz. It will be interesting to see how it breaks down, as Peter Gammons has been reporting that the biggest players are the Mets and the Dodgers. We (or a least me and Avkash) can only hope that the Dodgers raise the price.

MASSIVE EDIT: Two things... one, the blog name is Flushing Local not Flushing Load... I am freaking blind. Two, k d would be a she, not a he.

Thursday, December 04, 2003
 
The Yankees get Javy Vazquez

Basically, I'm going to take a look at each team and what I think the Yankees might do (which includes spending so much money, its insane) and how the Expos might be able to fit Vlady in their plans. First the Yankees...

This is what the Yankees are sitting with lineup and rotation wise...

C- Posada
1B- Giambi
2B- Soriano
SS- Jeter
3B- Boone
RF- Sheffield
CF- ???
LF- Matsui
DH- Williams

SP- Mussina
SP- Pettitte (assuming he re-signs)
SP- Vazquez
SP- Contreras (They are not paying this guy 8 million dollars to pitch set-up)
SP- Lieber

First of all, this knocks Jeff Weaver out of the rotation. Trade him for a couple of cheap young relievers to finish up the bullpen.

So, with the rotation and the bullpen set, what would I do about that hole in center?

Carlos Beltran is the answer. And the guy traded? Alfonso Soriano. So, now, we have a hole at 2B. I see the Yankees going one of two ways.

The first is outbidding everyone and getting Kaz Matsui. This would be interesting, since they would probably ask him to play second. If I was the Yankees, Matsui would play SS, Jeter would be at 3B, and Boone would move to second. But that won't happen. And since Matsui is dying to play short, the more likely solution is...

Todd Walker. If you can't beat him, get him. Todd Walker destroyed the ball in the playoffs, meaning Steinbrenner probably wants him. A decent offensive 2B, but terrible defensively, meaning that the middle infield defense still isn't solved. And let's say the whole Beltran for Soriano trade doesn't happen and they instead went after Mike Cameron, the most attractive CF free agent player. Which would you rather have?

Cameron and Soriano or
Beltran and Walker

You basically have two great defensive CF and two bad defensive 2B. Beltran outhits Cameron by a mile, especially since he doesn't struck out nearly as much. Soriano kills Walker, but still needs to learn plate discipline to be a much truly better hitter. Right now, he gets by on pure talent. I think I would almost rather take Beltran and Walker, only because they won't strikeout nearly as much as Cameron and Soriano do. It's a tough choice, and maybe its partly because I like Beltran a lot, but I take Beltran and Walker. Part of that is also the big raise Soriano will eventually get, which will be a lot more than Walker is paid.

So, lets say they go the Beltran and Walker way... this is their lineup...

1. Jeter-SS
2. Williams- CF
3. Sheffield- RF
4. Giambi- 1B
5. Beltran- CF
6. Posada- C
7. Matsui- LF
8. Walker- 2B
9. Boone- 3B

And basically, the top 7 can be put in whichever order you like best. But seriously, that lineup is downright scary.

OK, enough scaring myself with how good the Yankees lineup could look next year, let's go to the Expos...

Which Vazquez off the books, let's just see how much of a realistic possibly bringing back Vlady is. We'll breakdown the salary spot by spot, and let's assume Vlady makes 13 million a year.

The rotation

First off, Livan Hernandez's 6 million dollars needs to be moved. I've heard rumors to the Mets, so let's say they were able to turn Livan for Jeremy Griffiths, Ty Wigginton, and a lower minor leaguer.

On an aside, I in no way support this move. Livan would be a half-year rental before he was traded, we'd be giving up a potential future second baseman on this team (while leaving a 3B hole... Wright is not ready) and trading away a pitcher I really like.

But, for the sake of this argument, let's say they do it (Before I get into this, I'm not too sure on how escalating contracts work when you first come up, so I'm using last year's salaries unless I can find their contract for 2004).

So, this is what I see...

1. Zach Day- $301,500
2. Claudio Vargas- $300,000 (pure assumption, can't find a number on him...)
3. Tony Armas Jr. (remember him?)- $2.1 million
4. Toma Ohka- $340,000 (another pure assumption)
5. ???

Ah, the fifth spot. My suggestion...

Glendon Rusch

Yes, Glendon Rusch. I have always liked him. His K/9 rate (6.62) has always been pretty good and 2.43 K/BB is nice. He had a tough year last year, but a lot of that happened while starting and a lot of it was bad luck. As a reliever, he finished up 2003 very nicely. He does have a tendency to give up the HR (1.16 for career), but he's worth a shot. He won't cost much after last year, and I think the Expos can get him for $600,000

So, with Glendon figured in, the rotation costs a little over $3.6 million. With raises and all that stuff, let's make it 4 million dollars.

The bullpen

Here's how it looks to me...

1. Luis Ayala- $300,000
2. Rocky Biddle- $320,000
3. Joey Eischen- $1.3 million (team option)
4. Jeremy Griffths- $300,000 (would like him in the rotation, backup if Glendon Rusch fails)
5. Scott Stewart- $327,500
6. T. J. Tucker- $310,000
7. Hector Almonte/farmhand- $300,000 (EDIT: Completely forgot about Randy Choate... he would be the 7th reliever, still being paid $300,000, so the money doesn't change)

May not be the best bullpen in the world, but fairly reliable and gets a veteran presence with the re-up of Joey Eischen.

Cost- A little over $3.15 million. Let's make it $3.3 million to be safe.

Total cost on pitchers- $7.3 million

The Lineup
C- Barrett/Schneider- combined is a little over $2.9 million

OK, let me explain that. Platooning them. Barrett has not had good seasons lately, and while not having a good platoon split, is a righty, and therefore, should hit lefties better. Schneider is a lefty and actually had a .700 OPS against righties this year. Not great, especially for 2.9 million dollars, but its the best you can do (Barrett should play somedays against righties, just because he is making 2.6 million).

1B- Nick Johnson- $364,100

I'm sure he'll be due a raise, but he's worth it. Unbelievable hitter, will be top 10 hitter in this league in two years for sure.

2B- Jose Vidro- $7 million

Expensive (that 7 million is what he is due in 2004), but also very good. Maybe one of the five most unknown hitters in the game, and might just be the best hitting second baseman in the game

SS- Orlando Cabrera- $3.3 million

That 3.3 million is what he made in 2003, so he due a raise. One of the better shortstops in the league. Doesn't do anything extraordinary, but above average at basically anything.

3B- Ty Wigginton- $302,500

We know the deal on him... needs to hit righties better. But provides good defense. Overall, this will be a solid defensive team.

RF- Vladimir Guerrero- $13 million

That's what I think he'll get paid. He could get a hometown discount down to 10-11 million, but I see 13 as the going rate for him.

CF- Brad Wilkerson- $315,000

Nick Johnson allows Wilkerson to move to the outfield. Not amazing defensively by solid, giving the Expos a solid up the middle D (and a monster arm in right)

LF- Endy Chavez/Juan Rivera- combined $650,000 (Endy made 300K... can't find Rivera)

Why do this? Because Juan kills lefties and can't hit righties. Endy Chavez doesn't do much of anything, but is lefty, so maybe concentrating on just righties will help him. Juan gets some at-bats against righties because of his power potential.

Starting lineup (10 players)- A little over $27.8 million. With raises, we hit $30 million

The three bench spots? Well, we'll go inside the organization for this...

OF- Terrmel Sledge- $300,000
3B/1B- Edwards Guzman- $300,000
Util Inf- Luis Ortiz- $300,000 (Yes, I understand he'll be 34 at that point, but he is just a utility infielder, and didn't put up bad stats for a utility infielder last year at AAA or throughout his minor league career. Plus, he comes real cheap).

Position Player Cost- $31 million
Pitchers Cost- $7.3 million

Total cost for this team is around $38.3 million. I'm not sure what MLB wants to keep them at (if any knows e-mail me), but I think $38.3 million is reasonable.

As, for how good this team can be. The rotation is young, but Day looked pretty good last year. Armas has a lot of talent (if he can keep from getting injured) and Vargas had good moments. Ohka was pretty good last year too, and Rusch is a big wild card. If he can pitch well, he could help out the Expos a lot. These guys are probably all a bunch of 3 or 4 starters, but together they could put together a solid rotation.

The bullpen is young and cheap, but could be very effective. It's hard to tell year to year how pitchers will fare in the bullpen.

The lineup... well, here is mine...

1. Wilkerson- CF (Yes, he struck out 155 times, but did walk 88 and had a .380 OBP)
2. Nick Johnson- 1B (OBP King of the World, won't bat first because Robinson will want more speed in the 1 hole)
3. Jose Vidro- 2B (no brainer)
4. Vlady Guerrero- RF (big no brainer)
5. Orlando Cabrera- SS (not the best 5 hitter, but will have to do)
6. Ty Wigginton- 3B (not the best 6 hitter, but decent)
7. Rivera/Chavez- LF (potential to be good)
8. Barrett/Schneider- C (bad Barrett contract hurts)

Not overpowering, but the top 5 are very solid. Wigginton in the 6-hole isn't terrible (its what the Mets batted him last year) and Rivera/Chavez (especially Rivera) have the potential to hit well in the 7 hole. As for the catchers... well, hope they can help out defensively.

Overall, a team that can be competitive in what is looking like a tough division (Braves, Marlins, and Phils should all be good), but will not have enough because they don't have a staff ace number 1 type pitcher and they won't be able to score enough runs to support their pitchers.

But, by bringing back Vlady and being somewhat competitive, it won't make MLB and the Expos look like a bad sham team.

NOTE: Posting the next week will be interesting, as I'm a little busy and I have to write a research paper for school. I'll post as much as I can, but I hope you understand when I don't.

Wednesday, December 03, 2003
 
Not much today, just two rumors to get to...

Rumor- The Mets want Johnny Damon

As always, the positives, then the negatives...

The positives are his defense and his respect of the walk. He is a good defensive CF and would help out a very bad (at the moment) OF defense. He also walks almost as much as he strikeouts, averaging 60 BB a season for every 162 games.

The negatives? I see a declining 30 year old...

1999 (25)- .307/.379/.477, 116 OPS+, .290 GPA
2000 (26)- .327/.382/.495, 117 OPS+, .296 GPA
2001 (27)- .256/.324/.363, 85 OPS+, .237 GPA
2002 (28)- .286/.356/.443, 113 OPS+, .271 GPA
2003 (29)- .273/.345/.405, 94 OPS+, .257 GPA

In 1999 and 2000, he was in KC. He was 16-17% better than the league average. He was in a hitter's park (Yes, I know, OPS+ factors in home park), so that helped his stats a little bit. He would be around fifth in GPA as a CF this year, behind Vernon Wells, who had a .299 this year.

In 2001, in a pitcher's park in Oakland, he was 15% worse than the league average. Just looking at his numbers, you can see he was bad. He would be well below 15th in GPA for CF and below the league average for CF.

In 2002 and 2003, he came to hitter friendly Boston. In 2002, he was 13% above league average and has a .271 GPA, which would make him 10th this year, right behind Scott Podsednik. In 2003, he was 6% worse than the league average, and had a .257 GPA, leaving him out of the top 15 for CF and putting him one point ahead of the average GPA for centerfielders.

Shea is "the place where flyballs go to die" and is not a good hitter's park. That goes largely in favor against getting Johnny Damon.

Johnny Damon would be paid a good sum of money to play here. As you can tell by what he's done lately, he's not worth it. And looking at the stats, I see the trend continuing to where he is only an average hitter who is made a little more attractive by his defensive skill (and made unattractive by that mullet). I see him putting up a .265/.335/.410 next year, good for a .253 GPA, which would be below average for a CF (and for an AL player, which is .257) and not worth the money he'll make. The Mets should look elsewhere for a CF.

Rumor- The Mets are interested in Trot Nixon

On the surface this looks like a good move...

2000 (26)- .276/.368/.461, 108 OPS+, .281 GPA
2001 (27)- .280/.376/.505, 129 OPS+, .295 GPA
2002 (28)- .256/.338/.470, 114 OPS+, .270 GPA
2003 (29)- .306/.396/.578, 149 OPS+, .323 GPA

Only 2002 would put him below average in GPA as a RF. Even so, all his years were above average according to OPS+. So, my problem with this guy? And no, its not that he's 30, cause that doesn't concern me. This does...

2003 Split
vs. Left: .219/.296/.275 (.202 GPA)
vs. Right: .330/.423/.625 (.347 GPA)

2001-2003 Split
vs. Left: .221/.303/.341 (.222 GPA)
vs. Right: .295/.386/.560 (.314 GPA)

He can't hit righties. He hits righties about as well as Luis Rivas hits anything (.234 GPA this year, by the way). Maybe that's why Duke is going to dinner with Reggie Sanders (NOTE: If you didn't know, Reggie hits lefties well), but Trot made 4 million dollars this year and I'm sure is slated to make more next. Four million dollars plus is way too much to pay a platoon player (even if he gets the majority of the at-bats), and therefore, Trot Nixon is not a good answer for the Mets in right.

That's all for today, but is it just me, or do I take the negative/do not sign this guy on almost every player that comes up in rumors. I think the only ones I like get signed away about a day after the rumor comes out.

Tuesday, December 02, 2003
 
Today's entry can only be described as a Seth Stohs type article. He would be the writer of
Seth Speaks and often writes about many different sports and teams. And that's basically what I'm going for today...

Mets Thoughts

Rumor: The Mets are interested in Miguel Batista:

I was shocked to find out that he's 32. But anyways, there are plenty of positives on Miggy this year. He had a 6.61 K/9 and a 2.37 K/BB. He gave up a .706 OPS (.241 GPA (as a side note, it would be interesting to see how pitcher's GPA against compare and what's good and what's bad...)) and only .61 HR/9. He gave up 197 hits in 193.1 IP, a little over a hit per inning. So, basically, he had a very good year. Another positive is that he is groundball pitcher, with 2.04 G:F this year and 1.64 for his career. The Mets infield defense should be very good with Reyes and Wigginton on the left and whoever fillls in second and Phillips/Piazza on the right. At least it could be more trusted than the OF defense. He made close to 3 and a half million this year and I wouldn't expect him to ask for more than 5 million.

But, there are negatives. One is that he's 32. Another is that last year was his career year (though only the 2nd year where he was primarly a starter). It was his highest K/9 and K/BB. That only seems strange because you would figure that as a reliever he would strike more people out. For his career, he gives up .84 HR/9, almost a quarter over last year.

I like Miguel Batista a lot. I always have since I saw him in 2001 for the Diamondbacks. Since then, I've always thought he should be starting. But, for the Mets and their state right now, I wouldn't sign him unless he was willing to sign for 2 years with a team option for the third for 4 million dollars top. Maybe I feel unsafe when he had his career year at 32, but I don't think the Mets should blow a lot of money on a pitcher this year. If worse comes to worse, Aaron Heilman can be the opening day 5th starter.

News Item: Joel Sherman's suggestion to trade for Geoff Jenkins

Geoff Jenkins, the oft-injured Brewers OF, who hit .296/.375/.538 (.303 GPA), is up on the trade block. The Brewers objective was to get rid of either him or Sexson, but I'm sure management woud jump at the chance to get rid of both. Damien wrote about this the other day and while not completely enamored with the idea, was not against it.

The trade, as Sherman suggests it, would be Jenkins (and his 8.25 million dollar contract) for David Weathers (and his 3.75 million dollar contract) and a prospect or two. I don't think the prospect thing would be a big deal, as the best players it could possibly be are Brazell or Roach.

So, with no objections to the actual trade, why would I have a problem with this move? Well, to be fair, here are the postives.

He had a .303 GPA this year. And as Damien points out, he wasn't completely reliant on Miller Park:

"The best thing about Jenkins? Although he lost power when moving away from Miller Park (.284 IsoP at home, .205 IsoP away), his average and on-base percentage actually improved. Jenkins hit .283/.370/.567 at home versus .307/.380/.512 away. In Gleeman terms, Jenkins had a .308 GPA at home and a .299 GPA away, which prove very efficiently that he isn't reliant upon a hitter's park for his hitter's numbers.

He is also only 29.

But there are negatives. One is that he has a OBP somewhat reliant on AVG. In 2000, he hit .303 and had a .360 OBP. In 2003, he hit .296 and had a .375 OBP. In 2001, he hit .264 with a .334 OBP and in 2002 his .243 with a .320 OBP. His walk rate, 11.5 AB/BB (career), isn't particulary impressive and his strikeout rate (4.03 AB/K career) is not good at all. That, combined with the fact that he's coming to a bigger park where fly balls come to die, could bring down his numbers.

In the end, I'm against this trade for a few reasons. For one, taking on 4.5 million dollars for one year is not a good idea. Yeah, he could do well, and you could probably resign him to something in the 5-6 million dollar range, but he'll be a free agent after this year anyways (unless he gets traded or something amazing happens and Milwaukee resigns him). I would rather not spend the money and just keep the arm in the pen. Also, if you do get him, and decide to use him in a trade, what's to say he won't get injrued again? I mean, this guy gets injured in the freakiest ways and gets injured every year. Over the past three seasons, he has played in an average of 99 games and has had 376 at-bats. I just don't think its worth spending the 4.5 million dollars on a one year rental in the OF that will do nothing to help this team in the long run. Plus, you don't want him beyond this year (or even this year) defensively, with Cliff Floyd already out there (I know, his knees are supposed to be better, but how much better?)

News Item: Luis Castillo signed by the Marlins

This is sort of Mets news. The contract ended up being 3 years and 16 million dollars, with an option for the fourth year. We've been over this way too many times, but let's just say I was relieved to find out that the news Bryan Smith had been reporting on Luis Castillo was finally true.

Baseball Thoughts

News item: Chris Capuano involved in Sexson trade

Why do I bring this up? Well, for one, he went to Duke, and that's just cool. But the more important reason was that I was impressed by his minor league stats and now I'm thinking he could be a middle of the rotation starter instead of a back end (5th) of the rotation starter. Let's take a peek...

In 439 IP, 8.38 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, .51 HR/9, 8.51 H/9, and a 3.75 ERA

Plus, last year, in the PCL (a hitter's league)...

142.2 IP, 6.82 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, .57 HR/9, 8.39 H/9, and a 3.34 ERA

His strikeout numbers are still good, and his low walk total is very good. I was particulary impressed by how he kept down his HR/9 totals.

Overall, I see a guy that is a good fit in Milwaukee because he does not give up a lot of homeruns (He is a groundball pitcher). He is also lefthanded and 25, which is always a good thing.

News item: Aaron Boone gets one year deal worth 5.75 million dollars

We've been over it a million times (I'm talking about why this is a stupid trade), but the Boss wouldn't just admit it. But we knew that. Aaron Boone, had them in a simple position. Let me go, or show me the money. The Boss, not wanting to admit he gave up his only pitching prospect for Robin Ventura of '02 without the plate disclipline or a 3B who couldn't hit away from Great American Ballpark, showed him the money. The only person its better to be right now in the Yankees orginization is Drew Henson, who is, strangely, also a 3B.

Jets Thoughts

Jets 24-17 last night on MNF over the Titans

Now, granted, I was asleep for most of the second half, but still, I was shocked. This is Tennessee were talking about, my Super Bowl champs. This is Steve McNair, my MVP. But, the Jets played a good game and won it. I'm happy.

Now, I would be happier if the Jets were 7-5 right now and in the playoff hunt. And they easily could be. The Giants loss in OT. The Indy loss in Week 11. The Jets probably deserved to win both games. But, that's how the NFL works. Carolina could easily be out of the race with all the close games they've had. And how many have been won by John Kasay's leg (not last week's though). That's how parity works. Some teams get the bounces, some teams don't.

The other thing I wanted to do today was to look at the positives and negatives so far this year for the Jets, in terms of players. First, the offense...

Positives

Chad Pennington- The Jets are 3-3 since he came back, but just seem to have new life. He has a 99.2 QB rating and a 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio. He's also been accurate as usual, completing 65.7% of his passes.

Curtis Martin- Some may question this, but I believe he is. He projects to get 1,159 rushing yards (3.9 AVG) and close to 1,400 all-purpose yards, which is very good for a 30 year old back. He has also only fumbled 2 times this year, a very valuable thing called controlling the ball. He is one of the best at holding on to the ball, and that always makes him a positive.

Jerald Sowell- He has basically replaced Richie Anderson. He has 37 catches (a career high for him) for 341 yards (a career high) and 1 TD. He has made some big catches and is becoming a bigger part of the offense every game. Before this year, he had never had more than 10 catches in a season (1998). He's basically taken the catching running back job that Richie Anderson held (who by the way, should be the NFC FB in the Pro Bowl, but that's a different discussion for a different day).

Santana Moss- Chad's new favorite reciever, has made a connection with him like he made a connection with Coles. He has 882 yards on 52 catches (17 YPC) and 10 TD's. Plus, he returns punts. Explosive, and finally breaking out to deserve that first round pick the Jets used on him.

Chris Baker- Yes, he's made all of 11 catches for 106 yards this season, but I think he's made some progress. He's second year out of Michigan State, a big TE (6-3, 258) who I think has a very nice future. I like seeing him in the game and would like them to throw the ball his way a little more often.

Negatives

Curtis Conway- I knew this would not be good before the season. 36 catches, 502 yards, 2 TD's. Not good for a supposed "deep threat". Never liked this move before the season and still don't like it. Never been a fan of Conway. Oft-injured and has dropped too many passes this year.

Vinny Testaverde- I really don't want to be cruel to him, but they were 2-4 in games he started. He ended up with pretty good stats, but his inability to move around just seemed to kill the Jets. Plus, his two good QB rating games are games where they took the ball out of his hand and didn't throw as much. Unfortunately, it tells you something. Vinny gets too many passes, Vinny don't play well.

Anthony Becht- He does have 27 catches for 270 yards and 3 TD's. So what's my problem? He's underachieved. Always has been. He has dropped plenty of big balls, and should have a few more touchdowns. Part of it may be that I like Chris Baker better. Part of it may be that I've never really liked Becht. But, I've always seen him as underachieving and not being truly as good as he could.

Now, we hit the defense/special teams...

Positives

Shaun Ellis- Breakout season on the end. Now, imagine if the tandem of Abraham and Ellis ever got it together in the same season. But that's for later. He has 51 tackles, 39 solo, and the big number, 12 sacks. He's been aggressive, and a menace.

Sam Cowart- 126 tackles, 86 solo, and 2 sacks. A leader on the defense, and a tough hard-nosed linebacker. A guy I have always liked and was happy to get when the Jets got him (still only 29, which shocked me).

Negatives

John Abraham- 32 tackles, 25 solo. He actually has 6 sacks. So, the negative? It comes in 6 games. He's had DUI problems, and was listed inactive for games. He hasn't played since week 8, and its very dissapointing for a guy who was on the rise as one of the best pass rushers in the league.

DeWayne Robertson- Not to pick on a rookie, but he has 33 tackles (29 solo) and has just been absolutely overpowered this year. Things should improve over the next couple of years, but for this year, he hasn't helped that defense and its problems against the run.

Sam Garnes- No stats on this one. Let's just put it this way. I watched him play with the Giants. And if you ever watched him play, then you know what I mean when I say, Sam Garnes is always a neagtive.

Ray Mickens- No stats here either. Just a simple nickname me and my Dad came up with over the years... Ray Mickens... The King of Pass Interference.

Doug Brien- 20 for 24 on FG's (83.3%) which isn't bad at all. But he's the problem. 0 for 3 from 50+. This guy can't kick a deep FG and to be honest, I never feel perfectly safe with him out there (not that I ever did with John Hall). Also, will never be forgiven for not paying attention during the Giants game where the FG was blocked.

There you have it, the positives and negatives of the Jets as I see it. Any comments? The e-mail tab is always on the sidebar.

Duke Thoughts

Duke suffered defeat at the hands of Purdue for their first loss of the season. It was dissapointing, but as I've said before, I expect this team to lose a few games. Statistically, this team has had its problems. J.J. Redick has shot 33% from the field and only 23% from three point land. Chris Duhon has a 1.8/1 AST to TO ratio, but is still averaging 3 TO a game, something I'd like to see lower, but am not expecting to see lower. Shelden Williams has impressed me with 11.3 PPG and 7.5 RPG while shooting 53% from the field. And freshman sensation Luol Deng has pretty good stats (16.8 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.5 BPG), but hasn't impressed me when I've watched him.

Duke plays 29 games this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 20-9 or 19-10. Still a tourney team and probably deserving of around a 7 seed (while getting a 5 because they are Duke). The ACC will be tough, with the likes of UNC (my pick to win the conference), Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest all ranked, and Julius Hodge and NC State lurking. The ACC has the chance to have 6 teams in the tourney and I would not be surprised if it happened. I would be happy aif it happened, as the ACC has had down years lately in terms of how many teams they have had in the tourney. But it also scares me a little, because this Duke team just isn't that great. And yes, by the end of tomorrow they'll be 3-2 (Michigan State, 9 PM, ACC-Big Ten Challenge)

That's all for today. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you enjoy the work, I put a good amount of time into it today.

Sunday, November 30, 2003
 
Strange day, strange post time...

Not much in Mets news, but if you want the low down on all the Schilling aftermath and the Sexson trade, go check out Bryan Smith's weekend post. And on the topic of the players Milwaukee will get, Al Bethke seems to agree with my sentiments on them (Loves Overbay, likes de la Rosa's upside, and Counsell is crap). Though I was mistaken, as it seems Counsell will be playing shortstop.

The only Mets news is that they seem to be matching the price the Marlins are willing to pay Luis Castillo, which means if they want him, they could drive the price up to 6 million dollars a year. Even when I was for signing Castillo, I thought the price should be nowhere near 6 million dollars. The 3 years part would be acceptable if they had to sign him, but why is there even an option for a fourth? You've all read Avkash's post on why the Mets shouldn't sign Castillo, so I won't bore you with the reasons (Though I am looking forward to Avkash's post ripping Mets management for the pure fact that it will be good and also the fact that I want him to talk about Jason Phillips already).

No post tomorrow, as I'll be busy from after school until 9, and I do want to watch my Jets get killed by my man Steve McNair and his Tennessee Titans. But, not to end this post on a sour note (because I know you all hate when you have to go a day without me posting), let me remind you of a name that hasn't been heard in Mets rumors for a couple of weeks...

Kevin Millwood

We can only pray that it stays that way.


Powered by Blogger