Jeremy Heit's Blog
Saturday, December 27, 2003
 
The name I put up today for the RF spot is John Vander Wal. Flip through the stats for yourself, his only real big downside is that he can't hit lefties (If we have Roger, he has to get at least 100 AB's). He'll also come really really cheap.

And for a bench OF spot (You know, so Raul doesn't get one. I'm also assuming we can get rid of Cedeno somehow, probably by salary dump), how about Jeremy Giambi. He could spell Vander Wal against lefties. I know that he doesn't hit lefties for power well, but he still gets on base against them.

Then why not everyday against righties at that point? Have you ever watched him play defense? It might be worse than Cedeno. He'd be a nice bat off the bench that can draw a walk, hit a homer, and Art Howe knows he can at least play RF, LF, and 1B (like McEwing can play 7 positions).

Friday, December 26, 2003
 
This is why Omar Minaya just isn't a good GM. I don't care what the circumstances are, he has a .302 career OBP and the last 3 years, he's gone .280, .309, .270. Not good at all.

Other than that, nothing is going on. I'll check back in tomorrow, and maybe I'll have a news story.

Thursday, December 25, 2003
 
I really thought I would have something. But I got nothing. Well, there is this...

Yanks taxed $11.8M by MLB

Now, that brings a smile to my face. Then I realize George doesn't care. Oh well, at least its something.

Have a Merry Christmas everyone!

Wednesday, December 24, 2003
 
Getting back to baseball today, since I don't want to lose half my readers...

There are only a few things to get to, but they are still important.

Ben Grieve signs with the Brew Crew

The Brewers are quietly making some decent moves and I think this is one. But that's not why I bring it up. I bring it up, because, why didn't I think of it for the Mets?

Ben Grieve

1998 OAK- 583 AB, .288/.386/.458, 18 HR, 41 2B
1999 OAK- 486 AB, .265/.358/.481, 28 HR, 21 2B
2000 OAK- 594 AB, .279/.359/.487, 27 HR, 40 2B
2001 TB- 542 AB, .264/.372/.387, 11 HR, 30 2B
2002 TB- 482 AB, .251/.353/.432, 19 HR, 30 2B
2003 TB- 165 AB, .230/.371/.345, 4 HR, 7 2B

Career, he's .270/.368/.444 hitter and has a P/PA of 3.94.

Remember when he was a can't miss in the Oakland system? Well, no longer, because he signed a 1 year deal worth 700K. You're telling me the Mets couldn't jack this up to a million and sign him.

Before we get to his offense, there have been questions about his defense in the past. Well, Al Bethke proves that its at least average, and of course, its better than Cedeno.

As for offense, he's only 27, 28 next May. Those are the prime years and this guy has a shot to get back to rspectable numbers, even if its at the 2002 level. I think he could do better. He's always had good power and he's very patient. He understand how to take a walk, so his OBP will at least always be good. His HR total might not have been that high because its Shea, but he could hit some doubles. The point is, is that he wouldn't have been Jeromy Burnitz.

Ben Grieve could have probably given the Mets average D and a .260/.360/.450 line (ZIPS has .261/.376/.404) for around 1 million dollars. That would have been nice. Oh well...

The A-Rod Deal is Dead, Part 6

I haven't talked much about this, but I find all this stuff about chemistry and not being able to play together a crock of not a very nice word. Manny plays no matter what, he's just Manny, that's what he does. Nomar is in a contract year, of course he'll play to prove he deserves the money he wants. A-Rod will work it out, especially after he puts up another MVP caliber season.

The interesting guy no one talks about is Maggilo. Maggilo is getting thrown around in this too, not knowing which color soxs he'll be wearing next year. He's in a contract year himself, and will play hard no matter what, but will probably never get the 14 million he's owed this year.

Overall, I don't think this is dead, because well, does anyone?

While flipping through the Bill James Handbook: Edition 1

This has to do with park factors (100 being even, over favoring hitters) and Mike Cameron (I wish I knew how to do charts better...)

Safeco 2002-2003
AVG: 94
2B: 79
HR: 89
RHB-AVG: 95
RHB-HR: 80

Shea 2002-2003
AVG: 98
2B: 88
HR: 101
RHB-AVG: 96
RHB-AVG: 98

Not only did he have a problem with the backdrop in Safeco, but Cameron had a problem with how Safeco kills hitters and especially a righties power. I don't expect Cameron's averages to increase all that much, but I expect his doubles to go up a little and his homers to go up.

Speaking of my own projections, I am doing my own unscientific and terrible projections for the pitchers and hitters on this team. I'll use those to create a pythagorean record for what I think the Mets will do (And hopefully by them I'll master the idea of a chart).

I hope everyone has a great Christmas Eve with their family and a great Christmas. I'll be back tomorrow, with a little something, since well, I don't have much to do on Christmas (I celebrate Chanukah).

Tuesday, December 23, 2003
 
6 months. Isn't that supposed to be a long time? It doesn't seem like it. I guess that's part of being 16. They say it goes faster and faster as you grow up, and you know what, they're right.

When I started this blog, I didn't think I would get anyone to read it. It was something to do during a boring summer and influenced by the fact that I thought I had something to say. At first I didn't want to admit I was a sports nut and a big baseball nut, as evidenced by the first week of posts. After that, I succumbed to it and made this a baseball blog. We'll get to all of that later, but first, I have to send out a few thank you's...

1. To all the readers. Bloggers like to say its not about how many hits they get, but lately I've been getting over 100 page views everyday (with like 70 uniques). The first day I saw that I got a big smile on my face. I figured I wouldn't get to 6000 hits by 6 months, but I did. So, to everyone who's been here from the beginning to people who have started reading more recently, thanks for coming everyday and I hope you enjoy what I have to say (Which leads me to another point, which is how, me at 16, can actually have points of the Mets that people respect and think are good...)

2. To Damien. The first person to get me a real good bunch of hits. He mentioned me as a new Mets blog, and when I made my Tom Glavine Ques-Tech article, he talked about it, and from there on, I was at least getting Mets blog readers to come everyday. So, thanks to him, for launching my site a little.

3. To Aaron Gleeman. For a few things. One is an inspriation to be a baseball blog, but I'll get to that later. This is about providing great commentary everyday that has helped me learn many things about baseball. Another is putting me as a Hall of Fame blog on his sidebar, something I never expected (that list of blogs is a mighty good one). And finally, its for giving me 79 hits when he took my e-mail about Brian Giles being the most underrated hitter in the game and talked about it (which prompted the article, which was linked on Baseball News Blog

4. To Avkash. Yes, he's fairly new to the Mets blog fold. But apparently, he was reading my site all year. Also, he helped straighten me out of Luis Castillo and really has made me more interested in learning about the farm system and becuase of him, I've kept myself going to learn new things about baseball and statistics.

5. The rest of the Mets blogs. For providing good commentary, for helping to keep me up to speed on the Mets, and for providing different opinions we can all learn from.

6. To David Bloom. For providing me with two articles with two e-mails and for allowing me to be the person who "straightens him out" on the Mets.

7. To the rest of the bloggers I've had discussions with. Most notably Dave Eisenberg and talk about OBP vs. SLG and Paul Sporer and a talk about AOPS, OBP, SLG, and all its worth. Just talking to other bloggers is great and having educated debates about the merits of stats was even better for my growth in "statdom".

8. To the rest of the blogs on the sidebar. For keeping me informed on baseball and for working my mind and making me think about what I used to believe was true (we'll get to that too).

9. To the rest of the blogs out there. There are some that should be on my sidebar, but I'm lazy. But seriously, to any baseball writing out there, just because it makes you think and look things up.

So there are the thank you's. But what about me becoming a baseball blog? We'll it was really part of four events crashing together into one.

1. My brother (who by the way got me the 2004 Bill James Handbook for Chanukah... like I need more stats to waste me time with), who runs the little known blog, Josh Heit's Blog, was my influence for starting a blog. Well, sorta. I saw him do it, thought it was fairly easy, and thought I had some things to say. Of course, I wouldn't admit to almost all of those things being sports related at first, but I soon found out that I just couldn't deny it.

2. Finding Baseball Musings (I believe through my brother also) and flipping down his sidebar and finding Aaron's blog. I read it, was impressed, and wanted to do that. To write about baseball, to learn all the stats. I figured I could talk baseball well enough...

3. Moneyball. I started reading Rob Neyer early this year and started to get into the "stathead stats". Then I read Moneyball. Now, look, Moneyball isn't a sabermetric book, but it got me interested in learning about OBP and all these other stats I never knew. That got me to reading more Neyer, BP, and baseball blogs like Aaron's (I acutally haven't read a sabermetric book yet, something I'm not particulary happy about).

4. The Mets second straight year of futility. That combined with the fact that I hated most of the case of characters had me wanting to get out some frustration. But I wanted to get it out in a statistical way, figure out why these guys were doing as bad as they were.

Those four things combined to form (no, not Captain Planet) this blog the way you see it now. Since then, I've learned a lot more about stats and learned many different ones. I'm still not really that great with many metrics, but I know what I use, which I guess is good. I'd like to be better educated in more, and I'm working on it, but I think I provide pretty good writing for what I know well.

But I'd like to be a more popular blog. Everyone would. But then again, do I have something special that you can really attribute to this blog. I mean, granted, that could be a bad thing, but things like "Gleeman-length" (Copyright Christian Ruzich) are trademarks. They are good, people know and can identify. What do I have? I came up with three things.

1. "Splits man". I use so many splits its isnane.
2. "The high schooler with no life". I'm 16 and writing a blog everyday. That says a lot.
3. "The unedited versions". I don't check my stuff at all. I have typos in three sentence posts.

I don't have a real indentity, which I guess is OK. I guess I would also want to make my writing better before I get a really big audience, because it could probably be ripped apart a little. Maybe I want more consistency. I think my writing is good, but I think I have great days and a few bad ones. I'd like to think for a most part I have good days and I think I do, but I'd like to have great articles everyday, but maybe that's just an unrealistic goal.

But no matter what, I love having this blog because its fun to talk about the Mets everyday and have a place to air out what I have to say. I also love having this blog because I've learned so much from so many different places over the last six months. My baseball knowledge has at least tripled in the last six months and I can mostly attribute it to this blog.

So, in the end, thanks for coming by everyday and enjoying my writing. Now its time to go at it for another 6 months. So, tomorrow, I'll be getting back to baseball, and I just hope you're all back again. And hey, maybe there will be some new people too.

 
If you want a good article and discussion on non-tenders for the Mets, check out Avkash's post here. Then go to the comments and weigh in yourself.

As for me, well, my non-tender article fell apart. Everyone but Moss and Looper have been resigned, and I'm not big on getting them. I just want you to understand I covered SP, RP, and RF options only because those are Duke's "holes". Ask me, and I say RF and that's it (And 2 backup IF's and a better backup OF than Raul Gonzalez... but that's besides the point).

I'm going to be back later, but I'm not talking baseball. I'll be talking about this blog and myself. Why? Because its the 6 month anniversary of this blog starting. It's not the anniversary of the first baseball post or the 6 months anniversary of me being a baseball blog (those are probably July 2 and the Robbie Alomar Deal breakdown), but I feel its important. And I just want to get out some thank you's, to readers and to bloggers. Plus, I just want to talk about blogging, in general. What I've learned, and how its not quite as easy as it looks. That might sound a little boring, but I feel like talking about those types of things.

So, I'll be back with that later, but I'd like to report on one more Mets note...

Go to the bottom of this article and look at the assorted notes...

"The Mets will work out 34-year-old Ricky Bottalico at Shea in the next few days with the intention of signing him to a minor-league deal and possibly promoting him to a setup role in the bullpen."

I can't even get mad about this. I just laugh and ask why. It's just funny to me. Ricky Bottalico... why Ricky freaking Bottalico. You're telling me Jeremy Hill couldn't do the same thing Ricky Bottalico could do?

Anyways, I'll be back later to talk about 6 crazy months.

Sunday, December 21, 2003
 
Here is the list of non-tenders. Before I start, I would like to know what Billy Beane is doing. He non-tendered Mark Redman. Seriously, with this and the Barrett trades, was he just getting bored?

Anyways, I would like to start a "debate" in the comments section. Look at the list and see who you like and make your argument. I'll be back on Tuesday (not posting Monday) and I'll review what everyone has said.

The Mets apparently have three holes Duke wants to fill. A closer, a starting pitcher, and a right fielder, with the latter being the most important. So, who's out there that I like at each position?

Closer

Braden Looper- If the Mets are dead set on a closer, I want Looper, not Urbina. He doesn't give up homeruns, though he only struck out 6.25 per 9 last year. He pitched in a pitcher's park last year in Florida, so that won't change with the Mets. He'll have a pretty good defense, like the one he had in Florida. He's also a groundball pitcher (2.3 G to F last year) and the Mets will be very solid there. He's 29, and I like him as a relief pitcher. I think he would be a cheap and solid signing for the Mets.

Starting Pitcher- in order of how I would want them

Mark Redman- I wrote about Redman Wednesday (scroll down) and would love to have him on the Mets. If the Mets could get him, they could let Trachsel go at the end of the year (or move him in July if they are out of contention) and then replace Leiter too. The rotation, with Seo, Redman, FA, Heilman, and Glavine would be very good in 2005 and when Glavine is replaced, it would be tasty (I promise never to talk like Kevin Frazier again).

Damian Moss- I know Damian Moss has walked a lot of people, both in the minors and in the majors. I mean, he walked 92 people last year and only struck out 79. He also gives up some homeruns and doesn't strike out many people. Then, why would I want him? Because, at 27, I see a guy who has the potential to be very similar to a younger Tom Glavine. I love his stuff and I think Rick Peterson can help him figure out what he's doing wrong. He's a little bit of a risk because he could be bad, but isn't this what we got Rick Peterson for? Because he's the pitching guru. If they want a fifth starter, give Damian Moss a shot, he won't cost much.

Andy Van Hekken- I don't wanna give him the fifth spot next year. I would rather give Heilman the job. I just want to give him a spot in our minor leagues. If you look at his numbers before this year, he was very good. Then, last year, his K rate fell off the table and his HR rate went way up. I think he's worth giving a AAA spot too (though I believe that means he has to be on the 40 man).

Right field

To be honest, there is only one name I like. Russell Branyan is out there, but like the story with Jeremy Giambi, you do need to hit over .200, no matter how many walks you get. So, that means the only name out there is...

Gabe Kapler- He's bounced around a little, and as far as I know, he's at least average in the outfield defensively. He's always had a power bat, and has some patience at the plate, showing decent walk totals. He also hits for a pretty good average. I think he could provide a .280/.340/.450 (.266 GPA) line in RF next year. I think that would very good right field production for the Mets, especially when you consider how cheap he should come. Granted, ZIPS doesn't think highly of him (.245/.310/.354 in 387 AB's), but I think he's worth the shot. He's only 29, and I think he could put up a pretty good year for the Mets.

And by the way, no Jay Payton. We've been over that...

Also, the Mets non-tendered Scott Strickland (why wasn't he been mentioned for the closer spot?), Pedro Feliciano (lefty, I like him, but probably replaceable), and Jeremy Hill (closer prospect, at least with KC, with a lightning fast fastball and no control).

That's all for today. Get going in those comments, and I'll see you on Tuesday.


Powered by Blogger