Jeremy Heit's Blog
Saturday, February 28, 2004
Wilpon says Cedeno isn't going anywhere

Timo might as well kiss himself goodbye, unless the Mets carry 6 OFs plus super athlete Joe McEwing.

I do disagree with the article, that states that he won't have much worth as a bench player. He's not a good starter, but as a bench player, he provides decent speed, a fairly decent switch hitting bat and slightly below average defense in the corners. Not great, but he has fairly good worth as a bench player (what he's getting paid does negate that somewhat).

And I really disagree with this...

"But should that be enough to keep him on the roster? Cedeno's presence means the Mets will have to keep a potentially useful player — such as hard-hitting infielder Victor Diaz or speedy outfielder Jeff Duncan — in the minors. The Mets need all the help they can get."

I disagree with this because both of these players need some work and why put them on a bench where they will get 100-200 ABs as opposed to 400 in the minors....

And specifially, Diaz needs to actually learn to play the OF before he gets brought up. He also needs to learn a little more disclipline...

Duncan needs to learn to be more aggressive. He has the Adam Dunn thing going for him. You know, "The watch the first two pitches so I'm down 0-2 in the count before I start" thing. It's good that he's patient, but he's actually too patient...

So, yes, Cedeno is an overpaid player, bench or not, but he does have some value on the bench and has more value than any other options the Mets have (And the best arguement, to me at least, for more value, is Raul Gonzalez).

Nice article on Goldis and Livesey, the Mets superscouts. Only one problem with it...

"Although the Mets use statistical analysis, Goldis and Livesey also evaluate players the old-fashioned way: they watch them

I don't get why people think that teams that use statistical analysis don't actually scout players by watching them...

Friday, February 27, 2004
Interview with Jason Phillips

How to run a bullpen By Derek Zumsteg (Yes, its free)

Go read them (Yes, I'm hardly going to be home today). If you need more reading, you know where to look.

Thursday, February 26, 2004
This is very cool

David Wright will write bi-weekly on about his experiences this year. Sorta like Jody Gerut's Blog. Will be interesting to see what our future third baseman (hopefully) has to say.

Wednesday, February 25, 2004
Sorry about being so late, its been a busy day.

Anyway, all I have is my quote of the day...

Class AAA Norfolk outfielder Esix Snead has stolen 406 bases in his six-year minor league career.

"I think manufacturing runs on days when you struggle, that helps you win games down the road," Snead said. "[The stolen base] is coming back. I hope so. I need it."
(From this North Jersey article)

Yeah, he needs it... especially when he puts up a sub 300 OBP in AAA.

Also, reader participation time... do you think I should organize the long list of baseball blogs on the side (now in alphabetical order) into something a little nicer. I don't know, I just don't like the way it looks with one massive list. And if I do, what should I organize it by?

Tuesday, February 24, 2004
It at least made for a decent blog post, but it ain't happening. Or at least that is what Freddy says. Of course, if Jose Reyes turns into... you know what, forget that. I don't even want to think about that.

Tom glad to greet Cameron

Who knew my whole defense killed Tom Glavine thing would take off. Well, I say just at home (or mostly at home), but either way...

A couple of interesting thigns to pluck out of this article...

One reason is new center fielder Mike Cameron, a two-time Gold Glove winner. The Mets' new stat guru, Ben Baumer, produced data to support the signing that said nearly 70 balls that fell in during 2003 would have been caught had Cameron been patrolling center. And while Jim Duquette recently joked that Baumer was hired because he won a rotisserie league at Wesleyan, the GM does place stock in those numbers.

Nice Ben. I'm sure everyone from me to Billy Beane could have told you that. I'd be interested in how he figured it out though. But, then again, at least he's figuring these things out. Now let's see him do it on future transactions.

But, of course, Art had to chime in...

"That's a lot of runs," manager Art Howe said. "And Tommy is a fly ball pitcher. He was probably hurt more than any of our other starters on those marginal-type balls."

I love lies. Here we go... Let's start with Glavine.

His G:F was 1.40 last year. His lowest ever, 2002, was 1.06. His career is 1.43. He had three years under 1.15 G:F. Every other year is 1.38 and above. I just don't see a flyball pitcher, especially career and especially last year (Its 86 more GBs last year, if you wanted to know).

And as for the most on the staff? Here's a rundown, first number is last year, second number is career...

Glavine: 1.40, 1.43
Leiter: 0.99, 1.14
Trachsel: 0.85, 1.27
Seo: 0.94, 0.94

We can't do a fifth starter... because we don't know (but if its Erickson, he's extreme groundball) Anyways, it seems to me at least, that over their careers, Glavine is the biggest groundball pitcher. And last year, when Art had a chance to get a first hand impression, Glavine was by far the biggest groundball pitcher. I think that would mean he's not a flyball pitcher (but yes, he was still hurt by the OF defense, but probably moreso by Alomar and Wigginton. The OF defense could have had more of an effect at home, where I believe the defense really hurt him, but that's just a guess).

So, Art, just stick to the cliches...

Monday, February 23, 2004
Why not talk about it?...

Soriano-Reyes Deal?

The deal, on player value, favors the Mets. And that's the only the reason the Mets would do it. So why shouldn't they?
1. They are not a power bat away. They are a power bat RF, David Wright, Scott Kazmir, another good pitcher and a bench away from contending seriously. Why trade away a 20 year old with great potential for a bat that won't help you do anything but chase .500?
2. Cost. Soriano costs 5.4 million, Reyes costs the minimum. Reyes will probably cost around 500K next year, while Soriano is somewhere between 7-8. If the Mets want to chase a RF and a top of the line pitcher, they need the money, since only Leiter and Trachsel are semi big contracts that can come off (they both have options).
3. Soriano's dropoff effect. There's a feeling that Soriano could dropoff suddenly and it could happen soon, considering he is now 28, not 26. And if he comes to Shea, Soriano really could be the next Tony Batista.
4. Loyalty. And this does play a part. Reyes has been all we wanted him to be. He hasn't done an Alex Escobar and sucked it up. He's shown us he can play ball at all levels and in the majors. And well, most of us Mets fans, from the feeling I get, don't want to let that get away before we see it fully bloom.

Soriano will be better than Reyes next year. Probably in 2005 too. But 8 million for a undisplicined 2B when we have a young improving one? No thanks.

Sunday, February 22, 2004
Looper hopes to realize full potential this season

I figure, hey, why not open it and read it. It should be a nice article on Braden Looper. And it is. But there is always some other good tidbit in every article. And this one I don't like...

Ricky Bottalico, a 34-year-old non-roster invitee, seemingly is the leading candidate for another spot.

That's a downer. It looks like we may see a lot of Erickson and Bottalico this season. Remember, Erickson is a groundball pitcher. Bottalico... was once good...

Damnit, this convincing myself stuff is harder than I thought...

Just a few bits of news...

Rich Lederer interviews Jay Jaffe- Another wonderful interview done by Rich. A must read.

Our friend and one of my fellow "Free Chris Reitsma" supporters JD Arney has made the move to movable type. It is a new and good look, so go check it out.

That's all for today... check out the rest of the sidebar for more baseball writing.

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