Jeremy Heit's Blog
Thursday, September 09, 2004
You won't get much from me this weekend... annoying things like schoolwork and such getting in the way of my 'net time.

The Mets won today, which, after that shock, came the shock that they played in the afternoon...

And just for a few laughs, Art Howe is on sale at EBay.

Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Both because of time constraints and so I don't bore you with numbers too much, here is what I would do with Carlos Dalgado...

2 years, 13 million with a 7 million option in 2007

I actually think that's a little above what should be offered, but the Mets do play in a big market and you should (and can) overpay a little for what you want. Should they want him? Ehh...

I see a player with no defensive value... actually a negative defensive value.
I see a player who is a flyball hitter, always sketchy walking into Shea.
I see a declining walk rate starting to show up a little, even in his post All STtar break 2004 numbers.
I see a downfall in BABIP and a big upswing in Ks this year, though its about similar post 2004, though his pre numbers can't JUST be ignored.
I see a player who is in his age 33 season next year, who is sort of a big guy and who now has a semi-major injury on his resume. With no DH to bail him out.

For all these reasons, I wouldn't want him and would only guarantee him two years if I did get him. Of course, since I didn't mention it above, the above 30+ decline phase is a factor in my thoughts too.

Basically, Shea adjusted, I see a .260/.360/.530 (.890 OPS) hitter AT BEST. Maybe he hits for a little better average, but I don't see him going over .900 in the OPS measure. While you are thinking that might not be bad, remember, no defensive value, can't hit lefties and a decline is possible, not to mention injury concerns.

By giving him a 2 year deal, if you were to sign him, I think you might be able to avoid most of these "issues", especially the decline one, because it is possible they are a few good years left in the bat.

So, what would I do? Ehh... take a look at my notebook I keep on the Mets for random stuff when I think of it when I'm not around the computer. Everyday I write my dream lineup for the Mets and everyday it changes. Some days its realisitic, some days its not (includes Beltran) and some days I just wanna basically rebuild, with one bat to bring it over to the group that will be good enough to win. I know, with the group they have, that's unrealisitic too, but, sometimes, you wanna hope.

I'm sure, somewhere in my mind, I could tell you what I want the Mets to do, in the realistic world. But, then again, if I ever truly throw it down somewhere, I know I'll end up dissapointed when it doesn't go that way. But don't worry... I'll get to it. I do have tons of time to kill in the off-season anyways, so what's the rush...

Oh that's right, no one cares about this season anymore...

Tuesday, September 07, 2004
Jedikaos has some nice David Wright love...

Question mulling around in my head lately...

Is there any way the Mets can get Carlos Beltran? If so, will they have to wildly overpay?

I'm thinking not in reality and if they do, they'll have to. Which might not necessarily be a bad thing, but different discussions for different days.

Mets PTP- I agree on some, disagree on some and think they are ignoring the fact Al Leiter doesn't pitch deep into games.

This has to be a joke... Matt has some good thoughts on the subject.

The Mets play baseball tonight, I guess. But, more importantly, Kazmir, Yankees, Wednesday night. And I'm home and have the YES channel... WOO!

Monday, September 06, 2004
Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, but I've spent some of the last day reading this and this. Black Friday was over a month ago and I just wanted to go back and take a look a little bit, which led me back to this post eventually. And it helped me to come up with something that still stands now in the general tenor of Mets discussions...

There is no trust.

Before, and the days after, it was betrayal. It was feeling like the management had completely lied to us and didn't care that they did. It was also trying not to sound too meldramatic.

Anyways, since, its moved on to trust. I don't think a single Mets fan trusts the fornt office this off-season or if they do, not completely. And its not so much who they sign, at least at the top end. As you'll see eventually, I'm not for Carlos Delgado, but, my fear is not them signing him, but wildly overpaying. I fear the scouts being wrong on Kendry Morales like they were with Kaz Matsui's defense. I fear that the Mets will keep Piazza at first, not trade Cliff Floyd and end up with the same team they essentially ahve now. Or that they'll trade Cliff Floyd and replace him with a worse player.

That's a scary thought. Not trusting the front office to do the right thing. It's almost like I'm afraid of the off-season, afraid to see them make another transaction. But I also want out of this season... at least there's a chance next year's roster could be good.

This season, on the other hand, is lost. It's done... hell, its unwatchable. Last year's was bad, but it seemed like the Mets had an idea, a plan going, something to look forward too, so you could stand watching them throw out a horrendous lineup everyday.

All because I trusted the front office to do the right things, to not quick fix it, but to make moves to be decent the next year and great down the road. Now? Not so much.

I've also realized I now have my own Mets story. I always heard Tom Seaver, Darryl Strawberry, etc. ... but now I have my own. Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber, Matt Peterson and Ty Wigginton. Hell, none of them might amount to much, but I'll be able to talk about how I followed their minor league boxscores, how I couldn't wait for the day they came up... so that, when I grow up, my children don't feel so bad when the Mets do it to them years from now.

You'll also notice I threw in Ty Wigginton's name. I miss the dude. I couldn't stand to watch him play defense at 3B, I couldn't stand to watch him hit and hack and he was a personal whipping boy for most of us around here, but there was some likable around him. Something, some character trait I miss about him. He pissed me off a lot during his time as a Met, but I could never shake the fact that I still liked him.

And so now I've started to ramble, so I'll stop... but here's my question, almost sort of a trust meter...

What percent confidence do you have in the Mets this offseason?

I'll say 20%.

Sunday, September 05, 2004
The must read of the day (hat tip BTF):

Tim Marchman- Crazy in Flushing

Other than the assertion (or what seems to be implied) that Howe doesn't deserve the fate of being fired, this is wonderfully written.

Do you realize Black Friday was only a little over a month ago? Hasn't it seemed like forever?

This last month and a few days have taken an eternity, watching the Mets free-fall out of the race for the division/wild card and in to the race for worst in the NL East. It's a season all Met fans want to see end, only because there is hope of something positive in the offseason.

Here are some quotes from today's NY Post article on the Mets...
"We're not winning," he said. "We need to figure out what we can do, if anything, to resolve that."
Art, here's a hint... Gerald Williams.
Duquette also provided an affirmative nod when asked whether Howe would be back if the decision were solely up to the GM.
Please tell me that's for the media and he doesn't believe that? I hope so.
"I wish I could say it was a good day and I can enjoy my birthday, but there's no happiness for me," he said. "You try to stay pragmatic, but it [stinks]. You feel empty. ... I can't speak for everybody, but I know everybody in here should look inside and do what they can to dig themselves out of it and play like professionals."
Are the Wilpons going to go off on their favorite Piazza now like they did with Floyd...? I doubt it.

That's all today. Maybe something positive tomorrow (or Carlos Delgado if I can get some time to look at some stuff).

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