Jeremy Heit's Blog
Saturday, January 01, 2005
 
Happy New Year

Happy New Year to everyone out there. 2005 bring a new year and brings us a little closer to baseball and the hope that things might just break right for the Mets.

Today's reading is an article yesterday by Jon Heyman on Beltran's asking price.

Enjoy.

Friday, December 31, 2004
 
Slip Up

I have an entry on the BA chat over at NYMfans. If nothing else, read it to see my massive brain fart.

Everyone have a safe New Year's Eve and well, see ya next year.

Thursday, December 30, 2004
 
Links

Baseball America's top ten Mets prospects is out today. Jay has the names posted out nicely for everyone to see and like Jay, I encourage you to check out the chat. Even if you don't have a question, it should be a very interesting read.

Speaking of prospects, OFF has a nice look at Brett Harper.

Finally, read over this Joel Sherman article. A lot of interesting stuff there, from revisiting Sammy Sosa talks to Travis Lee.

 
Average Steve Part 2

Well, after doing my research, the information I found was, well, not helpful.

ESPN, unfortunately, does not allow 2002 game logs to be viewed, so I only have two years of strike/ball data. Take a look...

2003: 61.3/38.7
2004: 60.8/39.2

The first number is obviously percentage of strikes, the second being balls. So, a .5% difference. Or, essentially, 1 more ball every 200 pitches.

If you remember from Monday, the difference in Steve's walk rate from 2003 to 2004 was .8 BB/9. So, the ball/strike data doesn't seem to explain the difference, so what gives?

Well, Steve Trachsel's career BB/9 is about 3.2, somewhere in-between the 2003 and 2004 numbers. I tend to believe, especially with his 2002 numbers, that 2004 is a more likely look at what his BB/9 will be in the future.

All that considered, and with the increasing HR rate, a low 4 ERA would not shock me. Still, he is a valuable innings eater, so this is another place, where, if Omar can find the right move, he should move Trachsel (whether he replaces him with Heilman or an FA like Perez), but he shouldn't move him just to move him.

Also, I took a look at some game scores data (Remember, the first number is less than 40, the second number is 40-60 and the third number is above 60. The fourth number will be average GS).

2002: 20.0/56.7/23.3/51.2
2003: 27.3/36.4/36.4/51.3
2004: 21.2/51.5/27.3/49.5

Those are the percentages for the first three columns... no real comment, but I just find this stuff interesting, so I thought I'd share.

Wednesday, December 29, 2004
 
Cornelius and Stuff

I'll get to finish the Steve Trachsel stuff tomorrow. I had to go to my PT job tonight and I'm a little tired, so tomorrow (hopefully morning, if I get out of bed) looks good to get the information up.

Meanwhile, my first article, about Cliff Floyd, can be found now at NYMfans.com. So you still get some writing from me tonight.

Also thanks to Jay for spreading the word about Matt and I writing at NYMfans.com

 
Announcement

Matt and I now have a writing gig together. You had to figure it would happen eventually, right?

Matt and I, truthfully, were planning this for awhile. We were going to join forces on one blog. So, when, Noah, the site administrator, asked Matt and I if were we interested in writing, it was a good deal for all parties involved.

So what happens here? Like Matt, I intend to keep posting here, hopefully daily. I expect this to be more bloggy, while more article-type things going on at NYMfans.com, our new writing place. Still, one never knows and we will see how things go from here.

So, I encourage you stop by here everyday because I'll still be running my little corner of the internet.

At the same time, check out NYMfans.com everyday to see what your favorite Mets obsessed 17-year olds think about the daily goings on of the Mets. As you can tell by the first piece, Matt and I intend to have some fun together. But I'm sure most of you, especially the BTF guys, aren't shocked.

My first piece will be on Cliff Floyd. That should happen today, but life is a little busy. If life allows me to, I'll also have the Steve Trachsel Part 2 information up here later and maybe a few thoughts on other rumblings going around, if there is anything to talk about.

Finally, if you do follow us to NYMfans.com (which you better!), sign up for the forums. Matt and I still want your comments on our pieces and that's the only way you can. This message is especially directed at Wes, but I'm sure you knew that already, right Wes?

Tuesday, December 28, 2004
 
Signings, News and Notes

Mets sign Chris Woodward to a minor league deal
. Not a bad move, as you can never have enough non-40 man roster talent and he is only 28, nice to see with all the 30+ guys around.

Of course, with him, Marlon Anderson, Jeff Keppinger and Danny Garcia, it is gonna be a dogfight to see who gets that second MI position. Because, you know, the first goes to Joe McEwing. Ugh.

They also signed two 30+ pitchers to minor league deals... Manny Aybar (32) and Joe Nelson (30).

The Mets are interested in Steve Reed
. Here is the rotoworld commentary...
And they wouldn't have to give up Jason Bay for him this time. If Orber Moreno and Scott Strickland were guaranteed to be healthy, Reed would be overkill. As is, the Mets could probably use him. Given that Reed has a 3.11 ERA over the last four years -- the last two in Coors Field -- there should be much more interest in him.
Nice one-liner there at the beginning.

I don't think this is necessary, with usable guys like Heath Bell and Matt Ginter in the minors (plus Heilman, who I want on the big league roster to start the season). And the fact that I want Orber Moreno in the pen to start the season. Oh yeah, and a guy named Blake McGinely too. But, if this were to happen, it would not be a bad move. Steve Reed is definitely a quality righty out of the pen. I just find it unnecessary.

Beltran? Maybe...
While the Astros and Yankees have been at the center of the Beltran talks this winter, the Mets have quietly set up their game plan.

Minaya has done his homework on the center fielder, spending part of Christmas Eve collecting an extensive scouting report on Beltran, according to a person with intimate knowledge of the situation.

Minaya was unavailable for comment, but an industry source confirmed that the Mets are in the process of setting up a meeting with Beltran and his agent, Scott Boras, for early next week. The Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers also remain in the hunt for Beltran, who is no longer listening to teams not willing to offer at least a seven-year deal.
I'm fine with a seven year deal.

But, like I've said before, until Minaya has Beltran signed, much like Pedro, I'll believe it when I see it. Still, I like him keeping the option open and going after it.

Meanwhile, the other Carlos...
The Mets are furthest along with Carlos Delgado, though the gulf between their offer (about $33 million for three years) and what the first baseman is seeking (four years at $45 million-plus) is wide. The Mets likely want to know for sure if they are in the Beltran derby before they commit even more dollars to Delgado.
Seems fair enough, though I hope they make the decision on Carlos Beltran soon.

I also found this interesting...
The Mets consider Martinez, Tom Glavine and Kris Benson untouchable. Minaya would listen to offers for Victor Zambrano. He also has been actively trying to trade Steve Trachsel throughout the offseason, without success, according to an AL official.
I'm not shocked by the Trachsel thing at all.

On the other hand, the Zambrano thing, while I'm not against the idea of trading him, is PR hell. If Minaya were to move him, and get back something that is seen as less value than Scott Kazmir, it would not go over too well among the fanbase. At this point, Zambrano is someone, unless they can get something amazingly good, that they have to stick with.

Monday, December 27, 2004
 
Wait, didn't we get pitching?

The Mets are meeting with Odalis Perez... or maybe they are just interested? Vinny has all the details covered already in this great post, so check that out.

If this were to occur (and I'm for it upon first reaction), then Steve Trachsel would likely be traded. Do the Mets think he is in further decline mode by looking at his past three years like I started to this morning (Quick aside: The finishing of that might come Wednesday... I'm a little busy with some stuff)? Or is there an easily available 1B out there for Trachsel in a trade? Most likely, the Mets would pick up a 1B in a Trachsel trade, leaving themselves a chance to go all out on Beltran and if they fail, fall back on Maggilo for their final hole of the off-season.

I like this idea. I like Odalis Perez coming in as an under 30 pitcher (hopefully for 3 years at about 7 million) and, like I'll get to in the next couple of days in the second part of the Trachsel piece, I've always been for moving Trachsel if the right deal comes along.

Of course, I am assuming a lot here, but hey, isn't that what I'm supposed to do?

 
Average Steve

Steve Trachsel is just about as average as you can get. He just exudes averageness. But what if I told you Steve Trachsel is trendy? Take a look...

2002: 3.37 ERA, 116 ERA+, 4.34 DIPS, 3.91 ERC
2003: 3.78 ERA, 112 ERA+, 4.63 DIPS, 4.04 ERC
2004: 4.00 ERA, 107 ERA+, 4.79 DIPS, 4.38 ERC

NOTE: That is DIPS from ESPN.com, meaning it is not park or league adjusted I believe.

That's a downward decline... right? Not so fast...

2002: 4.15 RA, 26.2 VORP
2003: 3.96 RA, 39.5 VORP
2004: 4.62 RA, 25.8 VORP

That paints a different picture. So what gives?

Well, first the UER. The number of them in 2002 and 2004 are much higher then in 2003. But what else? It's time for trend list #3!

2002: 5.4 K/9, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9
2003: 4.9 K/9, 9.2 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9
2004: 5.2 K/9, 9.0 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.7 BB/9

Everything is similar except for the last column. So, it seems as though he's a little jumpy with walk rate. What does that mean for the future?

I'm not sure yet. I plan to do a second part on this, where I'm going to look at balls/strikes percentage (unfortunately, BP doesn't keep this anymore, so I have to do some game log searching) and maybe some game scores too.

But the other trend in HR/9 scares me too. If you look at his road numbers this year, they are disgusting, namely to an atrocious HR rate on the road. Is that a look for the future? Not that bad, but a little more decline in ERA (4.20?) wouldn't shock me since he's approaching his mid-90's 4.5 ERAs HR level.

So, hopefully tomorrow we delve a little deeper into the walk rate and find out whether we should expect Steve to keep a 4 ERA or under going next year. And we'll also talk about the prospects of trading him...

Sunday, December 26, 2004
 
Some interesting Vic Zambrano injury news...
The good news for Mets fans is that the area of concern wasn't his right elbow, which plagued him before and after the Mets acquired him.

Rather, it was his left ankle. The even better news is that all of the tests, at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan, turned out fine. And that after treatment and therapy, Zambrano already has begun bullpen sessions, according to his agent, Peter Greenberg.
Trust me, and I think I speak for all Met fans... the big area of concern will always be the elbow.

 
Carlos, Carlos, Carlos!

Heyman with the dish
...
The Mets will have their day with Carlos Beltran, who got a six-year, $96-million offer from Houston and is being pursued by the Yankees. But the Mets are more likely to land Carlos Delgado. Baltimore is in on Delgado, and Boston will be if it trades Doug Mientkiewicz (Mets?) and Kevin Millar (Orioles?).

The Mets asked about Todd Helton, but the Rockies wanted Jose Reyes or David Wright. The Mets requested Sean Casey from the Reds but were rebuffed.
The second paragraph is just fun...

If the Mets can get him, its gotta be Beltran over Delgado, but I just don't think the Mets truly will be able to do it. But Omar has surprised me before.


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